This year signifies fifty years of official diplomatic ties between China and the European Union, as well as the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. In this first installment of a series of reports exploring the relationship between the two entities, Shi Jiangtao examines the impact the United States has on their connection.
China has increased its efforts to improve relations with the European Union before an upcomingbilateral summitlater this month, aiming to take advantage oftransatlantic disaffectionto encourage European Union collaboration and oppose Washington’s independent actions.
However, Beijing’s efforts to be accommodating with Brussels are different from its confrontational approach toward Washington, yet a much-anticipated improvement in China-EU relations is still difficult to achieve.
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Brussels has adopted a careful strategy to reduce risks related to Beijing, influenced by its intricate relationship with Washington and ongoing worries about China’s growing global influence. Advancement is also limited by structural distrust, differing international priorities andChina’s alignment with Moscow during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Without significant changes in strategic approach from both parties, analysts caution that there is a risk of missing chances to reorient the partnership for this year’s significant 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations.
Expectations were initially positive for this year’s China-EU summit, set to take place in Beijing on Thursday, especially since increasing trade and geopolitical conflicts led to the event being canceled last year.
With the escalating US-China conflict following Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House, China has focused more on Europe, underscoring the EU’s increased significance in Beijing’s overall plan to offset American influence, as stated by Feng Zhongping, head of the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
“After Trump assumed office in January of this year, many viewed it as a strategic chance to strengthen China-EU relations, with China expecting increased cooperation due to global instability and Trump’s erratic nature,” he stated.
And the July conference appeared to be the ideal opportunity to achieve that objective, considering its timing during an anniversary year and the pressures on transatlantic ties.
As part of a joint initiative to gain favor with Brussels, Beijing removed itsSanctions imposed in 2021 on multiple members of the European Parliamentand sent top diplomat Wang Yi on a visit to Paris, Berlin, and Brussels earlier this month.
In contrast to its leverage of rare earth materials over Washington in the US-China trade conflict, Beijing also introduced a rapid communication pathway tosupport the export of essential minerals to European businesses, likening it to China’s medical supply routes during the pandemic period.
“China and the EU should never view rare earth exports as a point of contention,” Wang stated, presenting the initiative as part of China’s overall dedication to collaboration rather than conflict.
During his seven-day visit, the Chinese foreign minister presented China as a responsible global actor and a dependable option compared to Trump’s tariffs, reflecting his doubts about NATO and his apparent shift towards Russia.
Referring to the EU as an “important center” in a world with multiple centers of power, Wang emphasized China’s backing of multilateralism and common goals in tackling climate change and other worldwide issues.
He also called on Brussels to preserve strategic independence, a diplomatic way of expressing separation from Washington, while making criticisms towards the Trump administration and European critics of China.
“China is distinct from the United States, so the route taken by the US should not be assumed to apply to China… Today’s Europe encounters numerous challenges, but these issues have never originated from China, neither in the past, nor currently, nor in the future,” he stated to top EU official Kaja Kallas on July 2, downplaying worries regarding Beijing’s increasing confidence.
Nevertheless, China-EU relations have not improved as anticipated, with Feng pointing out conflicting expectations, ongoing internal and external issues as major barriers.
“I think the issue stems from Europe’s strategic miscalculations,” he stated, noting that the EU had overestimated its influence during the U.S.-China competition and made unrealistic demands based on incorrect evaluations.
“While China must assess transatlantic relations impartially, Europe should take a more rational stance regarding China-US and China-EU interactions,” he added.
Since 2019, Brussels has viewed China as both a partner, a competitor, and a systemic rival, whereas Beijing has described the EU as a “comprehensive strategic partner,” a contrast that Feng notes “significantly” diverges from Beijing’s expectations and contributes to tensions between the two sides.
The emphasis was now on ensuring that circumstances did not deteriorate, he stated.
“The seamless holding of the China-EU summit will be a success in its own right. As long as leaders from both sides can meet and communicate directly, it is a positive outcome,” Feng stated.
The current focus is on avoiding further escalation, encouraging collaboration wherever feasible, and maintaining dialogue at the top level.
Cui Hongjian, a former diplomat and director of EU research at Beijing Foreign Studies University, also softened expectations regarding the summit.
As the summit draws near, the result is still largely unclear,” he stated. “Europe thinks that pressure can compel China to make concessions; China believes that Europe’s frustration with US policies will result in a shift in strategy towards Beijing. Both assumptions are probably exaggerated and not in sync, adding more complexity to the bilateral relationship.
He mentioned that Beijing was especially upset that the EU, after the re-election of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year, continued to maintain its strict position on China – even following Trump’s victory over Joe Biden.
While Chinese President Xi Jinping, in May, described the 50th anniversary of China-EU relations as a chance to enhance trust, “open up a better future,” and “oppose unilateral bullying” — a subtle criticism of Trump’s tariffs — von der Leyen has since become highly critical of China.
As Trump observed the G7 summit in Canada last month, she cautioned about “a new China shock,” blaming Beijing for using its near-monopoly over rare earths and continuing what she described as a “pattern of dominance, dependency, and coercion” in international trade.
Subsequently, in a speech addressed to the European Parliament earlier this month, von der Leyen intensified her remarks, criticizing what she described as China’s “relentless backing” of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and stating it as a “key element” influencing upcoming EU-China ties.
Beijing dismissed von der Leyen’s strong criticism as “unfounded and one-sided statements that demonstrate inconsistent principles.”
In Brussels, the mood about the upcoming summit in Beijing is “not very positive,” as stated by Philippe Le Corre, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis.
There are indications that China is unwilling to make concessions on the two issues that are most important to EU institutions: Ukraine and trade,” he stated. “Beyond words, very few believe a change is coming from China.
Le Corre highlighted the deteriorating conditions in Ukraine and the limited proof of “China demonstrating empathy or reducing its collaboration” with Russia.
Regarding trade, he highlighted the increasing EU-China trade deficit and rising worries about Europe’s industrial competitiveness.
He mentioned that Wang’s comments regarding creating a rare earth “expedited” process did not ease concerns among European stakeholders, who viewed it as a short-term solution. “Beijing has demonstrated no genuine willingness to compromise. In the end, the threat remains, and European businesses will face the repercussions,” he stated.
The outlook (for the summit) is not promising,” Le Corre stated. “Europeans believe they are putting in significant effort – traveling to Beijing rather than Brussels, where the annual summit was originally scheduled to be held this year…
It’s challenging to understand Beijing’s strategy in this situation – many believe China is waiting for an agreement with the United States before looking towards Europe. This causes discomfort, if not anger, among EU leaders.
Cui concurred, characterizing the United States as a “constant source of complication” in relations between China and Europe.
European officials have frequently criticized China for consistently seeing Europe as a subordinate or vassal of Washington,” he stated. “For many years, China’s foreign policy experts believed that Europe, as part of the Western bloc led by the US, always followed America’s direction in international matters.
However, the previously common view, he pointed out, had been increasingly questioned as transatlantic relations changed across security, economic, and political areas, particularly since the start of the Ukraine conflict more than three years ago.
“Europeans are reconsidering their strategic direction — whether to continue aligning with the US as part of a single dominant power, or to pursue greater autonomy as a separate center of influence,” he stated.
These modifications have increased awareness among Chinese officials and scholars regarding fundamental structural conflicts between the US and Europe, which can no longer be resolved by traditional political cooperation or discussion.
Cui pointed out that Beijing, recognizing the split between the US and Europe, implemented more varied strategies – taking a confrontational stance against the US, while aiming to maintain relations with Europe through interaction and sustained collaboration, particularly regarding rare earth exports.
He mentioned that Trump’s re-election has increased European concerns, leading Brussels to adjust its stance between Washington and Beijing.
From the perspective of Beijing, both China and the European Union were affected by the consequences of Trump’s re-election, leading to a lack of focus on their bilateral priorities and no significant progress in their relationship.
China must consider both internal and external elements—economic security, social issues, and strategic goals. Consequently, European requests should be evaluated in a comprehensive manner,” Cui stated. “Europe frequently criticizes China for ‘speaking more than acting,’ but this arises from this intricate policy calculation.
Feng shared the same perspective, highlighting that although Europe was wary of Trump and sought to decrease its military reliance on the United States, it still “appeased” the American president due to constraints in its own defense capabilities and expectations of tariff reductions.
Thus, regarding China, Europe still focuses on its relationship with the United States – taking a hard stance on China is, to some degree, a symbolic action directed at Trump.
Zhao Long, a senior research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, emphasized the importance of reducing the impact of external pressures.
He mentioned that China’s recent diplomatic efforts were intended to mend relationships that “have been affected by factors like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Sino-Russian relations, and security-focused mindsets.”
On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties, Zhao called for both parties to redefine the relationship according to its own conditions.
China-EU relations should not be influenced by China-Russia ties, as von der Leyen mentioned, nor should they be viewed through the perspective of US-China competition,” he stated. “The relationship should emphasize collaboration, its autonomous character, and adopt a partnership approach without zero-sum mentality.
Frans-Paul van der Putten, an expert on China residing in the Netherlands, mentioned that there is little flexibility due to weaknesses in the strategic triangle between the US, China, and Europe.
He claimed that the EU was geographically limited and had contradictory economic and security interests, thus offering little to China. At the same time, Beijing was unable to fulfill the EU’s requirement to end its strategic alliance with Russia, which would undermine its own geopolitical standing against the US.
Van der Putten, the writer of the recently released book “China Resurrected: A Modern Geopolitical History,” pointed out that the recent NATO summit in The Hague highlighted how much Washington can gain from European countries – possibly affecting the EU’s stance towards China.
In addition to pressure from the United States, he cautioned that Beijing must not overlook the significant frustration and complaints in Brussels regarding China’s trade policies and its backing of Russia, which has come at the cost of its relationship with Europe.
“Transatlantic tensions do not eliminate the fundamental issues present in EU-China relations, such as China’s state subsidy practices and its strong ties with Russia,” he stated.
Le Corre also mentioned that China needs to take further actions to improve its reputation and reduce conflicts with Europe.
He also warned against reading too much into Beijing’s efforts to engage.
Although some small Eastern European nations such as Hungary or Slovakia are showing a tendency to align with Beijing, this does not imply that the EU is pleased with China’s efforts to win favor.
In truth, the majority of member states are unwilling to sacrifice their values when dealing with a resolute Chinese government.
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This piece was first published in the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), a top news outlet covering China and Asia.
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