Latino Vote Swings Toward Trump, Reshaping Electoral Landscape
A new analysis of the 2024 U.S. election by the Pew Research Center reveals that Donald Trump’s path to victory was paved by a more racially and ethnically diverse voter coalition, with Latino voters playing a particularly notable role in this shift.
While Kamala Harris ultimately secured 51% of the Latino vote, compared to Trump’s 48%, this represents a dramatic narrowing of the margin from the 2020 election. In 2020, Joe Biden won Latino voters by a substantial margin of 61% to 36% against Trump.
This 12-point gain for Trump among Latino voters in 2024 was a key factor in his overall victory, which saw him win the national popular vote for the first time and secure 312 Electoral College votes.
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The
study indicates
that differential turnout patterns largely drove this shift.
While a relatively small share of voters directly switched their allegiance from one party to another, Trump benefited from higher turnout among his 2020 voters.
For Latino voters, among those who were eligible to vote in 2020 but did not, and then cast a ballot in 2024, 60% supported Trump, while 37% voted for Harris. This contrasts with 2020 non-voters who expressed a clear preference for Biden.
Further examination of Latino voting patterns shows that in 2024, Hispanic men and Hispanic women were divided in their presidential preferences. In 2020, Hispanic women had been more likely than Hispanic men to vote for the Democratic candidate.
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Additionally, naturalized citizens—immigrants who hold U.S. citizenship and constituted 9% of voters in 2024—also showed a significant shift. In 2020, they favored Biden by 21 percentage points (59% to 38%), but in 2024, they split their votes nearly evenly, with 51% for Harris and 47% for Trump.
While the Democratic coalition remains more racially diverse overall, the Pew analysis underscores that Trump’s 2024 gains were notably propelled by increased support from non-white voters, with Latinos and Asian Americans being particularly impactful.
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