In recent weeks, as covered on this site and as you can see all over the internet, a lot of post-Spring practice polls have been appearing.
There were some waves in the Penn State world as the Nittany Lions are in the discussion as a possible preseason No. 1 team. With that in mind, I began thinking about expectations and how Penn State has historically lived up to those – or not lived up to those.
In each of the past two seasons, Penn State has started the year ranked in the AP Preseason Top 10. In 2023, there were the frustrating losses at Ohio State and at home to eventual national champion Michigan. After a Peach Bowl loss hindered by opt outs, Penn State finished No. 13 in the final poll, down six spots from where they were projected in August.
Conversely, last season saw Penn State debut at No. 8 ahead of their dominant win in Morgantown to open the year. By the time the expanded college football playoff had concluded, Penn State was ranked No. 5.
But historically, how has Penn State fared with heavy expectations? That’s what this piece aims to address. Nittany Lion fans will be quick to point out that the polls always seem biased against Penn State or that our favorite team does its best when it has a chance to move up in the polls for a surprise season. There are certainly years like that – including Big Ten title teams in 2005, 2008, and 2016.
Let’s take a more broad look at some Top 10 teams that met expectations – and those that didn’t. Since 1948, Penn State has been ranked in the AP Preseason Top 10 on thirty occasions. That will be 31 times once this year’s poll is released in August. What might that mean for the Lions?
Fell From Top 10 to Not Mentioned At All
It’s early in the post to be quoting Jay-Z, but here we are. One constant in the AP poll is the “team that is ranked in the Top 10 that winds up tanking and being unranked.” Last year, Florida State took home this title – going 2-10 after being ranked No. 10 to open the year.
So, has this happened to Penn State? Well, yes, but with an asterisk. You all remember 2020 when Penn State was preseason No. 7 coming off its Cotton Bowl victory. The Lions were actually ranked No. 8 when they finally took the field for the abbreviated Big Ten schedule. After five straight losses to open that year, however, they were unranked.
Aside from that, it’s only happened to Penn State two other times. Coming off a national title in 1982, Penn State was ranked No. 4 preseason and wound up unranked in the AP Poll – though they were ranked in the final coaches’ poll. Then there was the 1961 team, which began the year ranked No. 7 and ultimately finished unranked.
The Good News
While I alluded to the “out of nowhere” runs of the last three Big Ten champion Penn State teams, many of the “on the luxury suites” teams started with high expectations in the preseason. The national title teams of 1982 and 1986 were ranked No. 8 and No. 6 respectively. In 1994, Penn State worked its way up to No. 1 from No. 9 in the preseason. Paterno’s other famed unbeaten teams 1973 (No. 7), 1969 (No. 3), and 1968 (No. 8) were highly thought of in the preseason polls.
So, while a little Penn State pessimism is always warranted, Nittany Lion fans should enjoy some healthy preseason expectations. Overall, Penn State has improved its preseason Top 10 ranking eight times.
That No. 1 time
While Penn State twice adorned the cover of Sports Illustrated as a preseason No. 1, only one time were the Lions ranked atop the preseason AP Poll: 1997.
So, we probably want to not think about that one too much. But, if you’re new, or need a refresher, Penn State boasted a high-powered offense led by Curtis Enis and played its two toughest games, Ohio State and Michigan, at home.
Things started fine for the Lions and they alternated between No. 1 and No. 2 for the first half of the season, which included a thrilling come-from-behind win against the No. 7 Buckeyes.
But Michigan throttled the Lions in a huge November showdown, setting up the Wolverines for a share of the national title. Though Penn State looked back to form in back–to-back beatdowns of ranked conference opponents Purdue and Wisconsin, the Lions finished the year No. 16 after two bad losses (Michigan State and Florida in the Citrus Bowl) and off-the-field issues (suspensions to Enis and start wideout Joe Jurevicius).
So What?
Like I said earlier, the numbers showed some good news: Penn State’s national title and should-have-been national title teams were ranked in the preseason Top 10. Meanwhile, aside from the truly asterisk-ladened 2020 season, the Lions have avoided the major trainwreck seasons that sometimes accompany lofty expectations.
If you want to play pessimist today, Penn State has had an average drop of 4.7 spots over the 30 times they started in the top 10.
If you want to play prognosticator, where do you think Penn State will wind up in the AP Top 25 poll? Will they get any votes? Will they have their highest preseason rank since 1999 when they were No. 3 to open the year?
