Key Casting Categories and Their Implications for the 2025 Emmys
When it comes to predicting the Emmys, certain categories act as bellwethers that often signal the winners of major awards. Over the past decade, there has been a strong correlation between the winners of Best Drama Series and Best Drama Casting, with matches occurring seven times. Similarly, Best Comedy Series and Best Comedy Casting have aligned eight times, while Best Limited Series and Best Limited/Movie Casting have matched nine times. This results in an impressive 80% accuracy rate over the last ten years.
With this in mind, the 2025 Emmys are already seeing early frontrunners in the three casting races: Best Drama Casting, Best Comedy Casting, and Best Limited/Movie Casting. The shows in contention are making compelling cases for their positions.
Best Drama Casting
In the Best Drama Casting category, The Pitt is currently leading with odds of 68.4%. However, this may raise some eyebrows, especially considering that Severance is the front-runner for Best Drama Series and has received more acting nominations than The Pitt. Despite only having three acting nominees for Season 1—Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa, and Shawn Hatosy—The Pitt still holds a strong position.
There is precedent for such a scenario. In 2012, Homeland received one fewer acting nomination but still won both the series and casting awards.
The White Lotus is the runner-up in this category, with odds of 21.3%. It has previously won casting awards in 2023 (as a drama series) and 2022 (as a limited series). The show’s ability to revamp its cast each season gives it a significant advantage. For Season 3, the acting branch nominated eight actors, including Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Sam Rockwell, and others.
Severance is third in the race with odds of 6.6%, having led the field with 27 total nominations in its second season. Its nine nominated cast members include Adam Scott, Britt Lower, Zach Cherry, and Gwendoline Christie.
The Last of Us follows with odds of 3.7%, featuring Pedro Pascal, Bella Ramsey, and Jeffrey Wright among its six nominees. Lastly, Slow Horses received a casting citation for Season 4 despite only getting a lead nomination for Gary Oldman. Notably, Jack Lowden and Jonathan Pryce were unexpectedly snubbed.
Best Comedy Casting
In the Best Comedy Casting category, The Studio leads with odds of 89.3%. It received 10 acting nominations, more than any other TV program this year. The nominees include Seth Rogen, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, and Martin Scorsese, among others. As a first-year comedy, The Studio has a strong chance of winning, following a trend seen with The Bear (2023), Abbott Elementary (2022), and Ted Lasso (2021).
Only Murders in the Building is in second place with odds of 4.5%. Despite heavy use of special guest stars like Zach Galifianakis and Melissa McCarthy, none of these actors received nominations. However, Martin Short earned his fourth consecutive bid for Best Comedy Actor.
The Bear is the reigning champion in this category and aims to match the success of Veep by going three-for-three. Its seven acting nominees for Season 3 include Jeremy Allen White, Ayo Edebiri, and Olivia Colman.
Hacks is in fourth place with odds of 1.6%. Although it did not win the casting prize last year, it did win Best Comedy Series. Its four nominees for Season 4 include Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder.
Finally, Shrinking entered the casting race for the first time with its second season, featuring Jason Segel, Harrison Ford, and Jessica Williams.
Best Movie/Limited Casting
In the Best Movie/Limited Casting category, Adolescence is the clear favorite with odds of 90.3%. The Netflix limited series features five nominated actors—Stephen Graham, Owen Cooper, Ashley Walters, Erin Doherty, and Christine Tremarco—who have become international stars due to the show’s success. This mirrors the rise of Baby Reindeer, which won multiple Emmys, including casting and series.
The other contenders are in Adolescence’s shadow. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story is the predicted runner-up with odds of 4.9%, featuring Cooper Koch, Javier Bardem, and Chloë Sevigny. The Penguin follows with three nominations, including Colin Farrell and Cristin Milioti. Black Mirror has one nominee, Rashida Jones, while Dying for Sex received three nods for Michelle Williams, Rob Delaney, and Jenny Slate.
