Key Focus on Migration and Franco-British Relations
As French President Emmanuel Macron arrives in the UK for a state visit, the primary focus of discussions is expected to be on migration, particularly the issue of small boat crossings across the English Channel. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is keen to leverage this opportunity to negotiate a “one in one out” agreement with France, which would allow the UK to return migrants arriving by small boats to France in exchange for accepting asylum seekers with family ties in the UK. This deal has been a key priority for the government as it seeks to address the rising number of arrivals and reduce the strain on border security.
The state visit, marking the first by a French president since 2008, will include a formal summit between the leaders of the UK and France, alongside a series of cultural and diplomatic events. The King is set to highlight the importance of the Anglo-French partnership during a state banquet at Windsor Castle, emphasizing the need for cooperation in addressing shared challenges such as security, technology, and climate change. His speech will underscore the historical and cultural ties between the two nations, while also acknowledging the complex threats they face together.
Record Numbers of Migrants Arriving via Small Boats
Recent data reveals a significant increase in the number of people crossing the English Channel in small boats. In the first six months of 2025, 19,982 individuals arrived in the UK, the highest figure recorded since data collection began in 2018. This represents a 48% rise compared to the same period in 2024 and a 75% increase from 2023. On 30 June alone, 879 people arrived, marking the third-highest single-day total so far this year.
This surge has intensified pressure on both governments to find effective solutions. While the UK and France continue to explore measures such as new tactics by French authorities to prevent crossings, officials have acknowledged that resolving the issue will not happen overnight. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander emphasized the need for a multi-faceted approach, including stronger international cooperation and improved border control.
Political Tensions and Public Perception
Despite the focus on collaboration, there are underlying tensions and questions about the effectiveness of the proposed agreements. Some critics argue that the “one in one out” deal remains untested and may not fully address the root causes of migration. Additionally, concerns have been raised about the methods used by French authorities to intercept boats, including reports of police using knives to puncture inflatable vessels.
Public opinion on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer remains divided. A recent poll found that over 60% of respondents believe he does not respect them, highlighting a growing disconnect between political leaders and the public. This sentiment has contributed to increased support for smaller parties like Reform UK, whose leader Nigel Farage is perceived as more relatable by some voters. However, even Farage faces criticism, with nearly half of those surveyed still believing he does not respect people like them.
Broader Agenda: Defence, Security, and Economic Growth
Beyond migration, the state visit will also cover topics such as defence, security, and economic growth. Both nations are expected to discuss ways to strengthen their strategic partnership, particularly in the context of global challenges. The UK government has reiterated its commitment to working closely with France to address these issues, with a No 10 spokesperson stating that progress is expected across a wide range of priorities.
As the visit unfolds, the focus will remain on how the two countries can work together to tackle shared challenges while maintaining their strong historical and cultural ties. With the King’s emphasis on unity and cooperation, the event serves as a reminder of the enduring relationship between the UK and France, even as they navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics.
