Progressive Lee Jae-myung to take ‘prudent’ Taiwan stance, while balancing Beijing trade ties and US-Japan three-way alliance, analysts say
South Korea’s new progressive president is likely to adopt a more “prudent” stance on Taiwan than his predecessor and focus on boosting economic
ties with Beijing
, according to observers. But they also expect continuity in trilateral military cooperation with the US and Japan.
Lee Jae-myung was sworn in after winning a snap election held on Tuesday, two months after his predecessor – Yoon Suk-yeol – was impeached and removed over his abrupt declaration of martial law in December.
Lee and his progressive Democratic Party of Korea are largely regarded as more friendly towards China and North Korea compared to Yoon and his conservative People Power Party. The
power shift
has prompted speculation about a potential recalibration in Seoul’s foreign policy towards the US and fellow American treaty ally Japan, as well as China and traditional adversary North Korea.
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During his 2022 presidential campaign
against Yoon
, Lee faced criticism for describing US Forces Korea (USFK) as “occupation forces”
.
Under Yoon, Seoul emphasised its commitment to the US alliance and stronger three-way cooperation with Washington and Tokyo in addressing security challenges outside the Korean peninsula. This included expressing concerns about People’s Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
The US, Japan and South Korea
marked a historic milestone
in August 2023, when their leaders met at Camp David for their first-ever stand-alone trilateral summit. In a joint statement, they pledged to carry out regular annual multi-domain three-way exercises and “strongly oppose” Beijing’s “unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the waters of the Indo-Pacific”, specifically in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
In contrast, in a statement following the Camp David summit, Lee described military cooperation with Tokyo as “unimaginable” and criticised what he called “blind” military collaboration with Japan that failed to acknowledge its historical war crimes during the Japanese occupation of Korea.
During the National Assembly election campaign in March last year, Lee accused Yoon of jeopardising trade relations with Beijing through unnecessary provocation and opposed “bothering” Beijing by interfering in the Taiwan Strait.
However, his stance on Beijing and the US appears
to have shifted since
. In an interview with Time magazine, published a week before the June 3 snap election, Lee said the USFK could play a “critical role for the US policy of containment against China”.
However, when asked by Time if he would come to Taiwan’s aid in case of a PLA attack, Lee responded that he would answer only when “aliens are about to invade the Earth”.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and South Korea, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but are opposed to any unilateral or forcible change to the status quo. Washington is also committed to arming the self-governed island for defence.
In his inaugural speech on Wednesday, Lee said his government would “strengthen cooperation between South Korea, the US and Japan”, based on Seoul’s “robust” alliance with Washington.
Victor Cha, president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that “things will be OK” with the trilateral cooperation, considering that Lee had made very clear during his campaign that he was committed to cooperating with the US and Japan.
According to Cha, who is also Korea chair at the Washington-based think tank, Lee will “not be as forward-leaning publicly” as Yoon about the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, but he may also have to adopt “strategic flexibility” as the Pentagon under US President Donald Trump “recalibrates the US position in Asia”.
“Practically speaking, if there were a war in the Taiwan Strait started by China, and the US asked South Korea for help in some form – moving air support off the [Korean] peninsula to the theatre, doing rear area support from Korea, et cetera – I do not think [South] Korea would have a choice,” Cha said.
“If it did not provide support, then that would effectively mean the end of the alliance.”
However, Cha warned that the trilateral cooperation with Japan could be “thrown away” if Tokyo took any actions that “upset” Seoul, such as insensitive statements about their shared history or their territorial dispute over Liancourt Rocks, called Dokdo in Korea and Takeshima in Japan.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said that while Lee might change the rhetoric towards Beijing, any marked policy shift in this regard was unlikely.
“I think that Lee will continue to pursue trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan,” Pacheco Pardo said. “But he will probably emphasise the pragmatic gains that South Korea gets from trilateral cooperation while playing down the value component.”
Henry Haggard, a former US diplomat and a senior adviser at Washington-based consulting firm WestExec Advisers, also said Lee was likely to maintain the trilateral cooperation, but expected him to deal with Taiwan-related issues more “prudently”.
“There is no way for Korea, an ally of the United States, to satisfy China in the security realm, so … if Lee seeks better relations with China, he would focus on economic cooperation in areas like tourism, cultural and student exchanges, and encouraging investment,” Haggard said.
Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow and SK-Korea Foundation chair of Korea studies at the Brookings Institution, another Washington-based think tank, presented a different view.
He said that any attempt by Lee to cooperate with Beijing on the economic front would make it difficult for him to address the Taiwan Strait issue.
“Lee will be more reluctant than Yoon to really respond to those kinds of security conflicts with China,” Yeo said.
“But I also think, as president, he’s going to have to think about national security issues in a different way from when he was a candidate.”
Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, said while Lee would not seek any major changes to the Korea-US-Japan cooperation, he would also focus on improving relations with China and Russia.
Additionally, he will seek a more “passive” role in the trilateral relationship, in contrast with the Yoon administration’s hardline stance, according to Kang.
As for the Taiwan issue, Lee will “try not to get directly involved in it”, Kang said. “[Lee thinks] there is no need for South Korea to be directly involved in the cross-strait relations … I think he will approach the issue in a very low-key manner.”
Lee’s turn to lead South Korea comes at a time when Trump is pressuring US allies to contribute more to their own defence. He has also levied higher price tags on stationing US troops in their territory, with reports suggesting a possible shift in the USFK’s focus to deterring China, rather than North Korea.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the Trump administration was considering relocating roughly 4,500 of the 28,500 USFK personnel to the US territory of Guam or elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Pentagon dismissed the report as “not true”.
However, the Associated Press on May 29 also reported that the US was “not ruling out a reduction in forces deployed to South Korea” as part of options in countering China. The report cited two senior US defence officials who spoke during the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit held in Singapore that week.
Yeo said that Lee would be opposed to any shift in the USFK’s primary focus from North Korea to China, and would view such a proposal as an indication that the Trump administration was looking out for “its own interest, and not really [South] Korea’s”.
He said that if the USFK were to have an expanded role, certain assets and forces working for extended nuclear deterrence were likely to focus on defending South Korea against the North, while the scope of other forces could be more flexible.
“If China gets really upset about [any pivot in USFK focus towards China] and starts threatening South Korea, [Lee] might become skittish,” Yeo said.
“But if … the Americans want South Korea to take on a larger role and responsibility in defending the peninsula, or, in a dual contingency situation with Taiwan and North Korea, if the USFK has to deploy some of its forces to Taiwan so that [South] Korea [needs to] step up and play more of a leading role, I think that kind of argument Lee may be open to.”
Cha said it was very important for Lee to begin early consultations with Washington about any possible force changes.
“If the goal is to change the deployment while not losing deterrence capabilities in Korea, then the US and [South Korea] need to consult deeply on how any changes in force levels can come with improvements in [Seoul’s] defence and deterrence capabilities to keep the North Koreans at bay.”
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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia.
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