Current Status of COVID-19 in Santa Cruz County
In Santa Cruz, the situation with COVID-19 has evolved from a wave to a surge and now appears to be a steady sizzle. Public health experts have long anticipated seasonal spikes in cases, particularly during the summer and winter months. However, Health Officer Lisa Hernandez notes that while cases are higher than she would prefer, they remain manageable.
“I think it’s simmering,” said Hernandez. “This means that we still have the virus in our community, and it is continuing to behave as a contagious disease. Fortunately, it hasn’t overwhelmed the system.”
Wastewater modeling suggests that rates of the virus have been elevated but stable since May. The county’s “reproductive number,” which measures how quickly the virus spreads, is just above one. This indicates that the virus is spreading, albeit at a slow pace. This trend is mirrored statewide, with California being listed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as one of 27 states where the virus is likely growing. California’s reproductive number is nearly identical to the county’s, according to CDC data.
Seasonal Trends and Comparisons
The rise in cases during warmer months is not unusual. Last July, the county saw a similar increase. However, compared to last year, the current situation appears more stable. Two summers ago, the county faced serious outbreaks in several nursing home facilities, resulting in five or more deaths.
Hernandez believes that if current modeling holds, virus levels will remain steady throughout the summer. However, with schools resuming in August and increased indoor activities, the community must stay vigilant.
“I’m hopeful that we’re not going to have any surprises with this virus,” said Hernandez. “However, the nature of the virus is that it can mutate, so we need to continue monitoring it. I’m hopeful, but cautious.”
The NB.1.8.1 Variant and Its Impact
The variant responsible for this latest rise was identified as NB.1.8.1, also known as “Nimbus.” It has gained attention for its severe sore throat symptoms, leading some to refer to it as “razor blade throat.” While this strain causes painful sore throats along with common symptoms like fever and chills, experts say there is no evidence it leads to more severe illness than other variants. Existing vaccines are effective against it.
However, much remains unknown about future vaccine updates as the seasons change. In June, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is known for his anti-vaccine stance, dismissed all 17 members of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. He replaced them with eight handpicked members, who met in June but did not discuss or vote on an updated fall dose. Their next formal meeting is set for October, but Hernandez hopes they will meet earlier in August to provide guidance.
Vaccine Recommendations and Next Steps
In the meantime, Hernandez advises anyone eligible for a booster shot to get the currently available vaccine. “It is still recommended and key to preventing severe disease, especially for vulnerable groups,” she said. “It is still covered by insurance, and until the panel makes a decision, this is the vaccine we recommend.”
According to Hernandez, everyone aged six months or older should receive at least one dose of the 2024-2025 COVID vaccine. Adults 65 years and older are advised to receive two doses, spaced six months apart. Individuals six months or older who are moderately or severely immunocompromised are also recommended to follow the same two-dose schedule. They may receive additional doses after consulting with their healthcare provider.
