Overview of Stage 15 of the 2025 Tour de France
After three days of intense competition in the Pyrenees, the riders are preparing for one final challenge before the second rest day. This stage promises to be a transition that offers plenty of opportunities for breakaway riders to make their mark. The route is designed to test the endurance and skill of the peloton, with several climbs and technical sections that could shape the outcome of the race.
The stage begins in Muret, where the riders will head east towards Saint-Félix-Lauragais. The initial part of the stage is mostly flat, but it isn’t entirely without challenges. After covering around 60 kilometers, the intermediate sprint takes place, which could see sprinting teams vying for points. This section sets the tone for what’s to come, as the first two climbs of the day soon appear on the horizon.
The Côte de Saint-Ferréol, a third-category climb, is the first major obstacle. It measures 1.7 kilometers with an average gradient of 7%. Following this, the riders face the Côte de Sorèze, a longer climb at 6.2 kilometers with an average of 5.5%. These climbs provide early opportunities for breakaways to gain time and set the pace for the rest of the stage.
After descending from these climbs, the riders enter a short flat section before facing the most challenging climb of the day: the Pas du Sant. This steep ascent spans 2.9 kilometers with an average gradient of 10.2%, making it a true test of strength. At the top, the riders still have over 50 kilometers to go, and the climbing doesn’t end there. A subsequent climb of 15.3 kilometers with an average gradient of 4.1% follows, adding another layer of difficulty.
Once the riders reach the summit of this uncategorized climb, the road turns downhill for approximately 30 kilometers, offering a brief respite before the final stretch towards Carcassonne. The last ten kilometers are relatively flat, but the final 4 kilometers include a tricky section with sharp corners and narrowing roads. The finish line comes after a sharp right-hand turn, with one final left-hand turn just before the flamme rouge.
Weather Conditions for Stage 15
Sunday’s weather is expected to be much more favorable compared to Saturday, which was marked by gray skies and rain. The temperature is forecasted to rise to around 30 degrees Celsius, with strong winds blowing throughout the stage. The wind will generally come from behind, although there is a section where it will blow at an angle, potentially affecting the pace and positioning of the riders.
Key Favorites for the Stage
This stage bears similarities to the 2018 edition, where Magnus Cort won from a breakaway group that included notable names such as Bauke Mollema, Greg Van Avermaet, and others. This year, several riders are expected to target the stage, including Tadej Pogacar, who may look to support his teammate Mathieu van der Poel. Van der Poel has been consistent in stages with similar characteristics this year.
Wout van Aert is also a strong contender, as he aims to capitalize on the stage’s profile. Other riders like Quinn Simmons, Ben Healy, and Kaden Groves are also in the mix, with teams like Alpecin-Deceuninck and EF Education-EasyPost having multiple options to consider.
Breakaway Contenders
The breakaway battle is expected to be fierce, with several riders poised to take advantage of the stage’s demands. Teams such as Intermarché-Wanty and Lidl-Trek will likely push for a break, while UAE Emirates-XRG may look to send Tim Wellens or Jhonatan Narváez into the lead.
Outsiders like Matej Mohoric, Laurence Pithie, and Toms Skujins are also potential contenders, as they thrive on stages with varied terrain and technical challenges.
Top Favorites and Long-Shots
According to analysis, the top favorites for the stage include Mathieu van der Poel and Quinn Simmons. However, other riders such as Wout van Aert, Luke Plapp, Axel Laurance, and Jhonatan Narváez are considered strong outsiders. Long-shots include Kaden Groves, Biniam Girmay, Jonas Abrahamsen, Tim Wellens, and others who could surprise if the stage unfolds favorably for breakaways.
With the stage set for a dramatic finish, fans can expect a thrilling day of racing as the riders head toward Carcassonne.
