On Wednesday, the International Labour Organization issued an updated version of their World Employment and Social Outlook report, which showed a substantial reduction in their global employment predictions for 2025.
The report forecasts the addition of 53 million new positions, marking a significant decrease from the earlier projection of 60 million, which leads to a gap of around 7 million jobs.
This update indicates a reduction in worldwide employment growth expectations from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent for the year. The ILO links this downward adjustment to a less robust global economic forecast, with global GDP growth projected to be just 2.8 percent in 2025, compared to an initial estimate of 3.2 percent.
The updated forecast for economic expansion matches the predictions made in the International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook report. This alignment supports the most recent job projection data released by the ILO.
The report underscored extra stresses on worldwide employment sectors, largely because of escalating trade disagreements. The ILO stated that around 84 million positions in 71 nations have some connection, direct or indirect, with the spending habits of consumers in the United States.
These positions, together with the earnings they sustain, are increasingly exposed to disruptions. The Asia-Pacific area is notably at risk, representing approximately 56 million of such roles.
At the same time, Canada and Mexico stand out for having the largest proportion of jobs susceptible to variations in U.S. demand, with 17.1 percent of their workforce potentially affected.
The WESO update highlighted the necessity for synchronized policy actions to tackle the combined issues of economic deceleration and disrupted trade. The ILO emphasized the importance of implementing strategies to enhance employment opportunities and shield at-risk employees in areas hardest hit by these worldwide economic changes.
We understand that the global economy is expanding more slowly than expected,” stated Gilbert Houngbo, the ILO Director-General. “Our latest report indicates that should geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions persist, along with our failure to tackle key issues transforming employment globally, these factors will undoubtedly lead to adverse impacts across labor markets around the world.
“We have the ability to create an impact, and we can achieve this by enhancing social safety nets, developing skill sets, encouraging open communication, and constructing fair labor markets to guarantee that technological advancements benefit everyone,” Houngbo stated.
The report also brought attention to concerning patterns in how income is distributed. Specifically, the portion of national wealth allocated to laborers, measured as the percentage of GDP attributed to worker compensation, decreased worldwide from 53.0 percent in 2014 to 52.4 percent in 2024.
The most significant drops were observed in Africa and the Americas. If these proportions had stayed the same, global labor income would have been approximately $1 trillion higher in 2024, equating to an additional $290 per worker when adjusted for constant purchasing power. The reduction in the portion of global income allocated to workers intensifies inequality pressures and underscores a divergence between economic expansion and employee earnings.
The report highlighted a move toward higher-skilled positions in the job market. Women are at the forefront of this change. From 2013 to 2023, the percentage of women working in high-skilled roles increased from 21.2% to 23.2%, whereas the number of men in such professions stood at approximately 18% in 2023.
Nonetheless, occupational segregation remains prevalent, with women being under-represented in fields like construction and over-represented in administrative and care-related positions.
Despite the global increase in education levels, the job market still faces substantial educational imbalances. By 2022, just 47.7% of employees had degrees that aligned well with their work responsibilities. Over the last ten years, the percentage of workers who were less educated than required for their jobs decreased from 37.9% to 33.4%. However, during this period, the proportion of individuals who were more qualified than needed rose from 15.5% to 18.9%.
The report similarly tackled the impact of emerging technologies on employment. It reveals that approximately one out of every four employees might see their roles altered due to generative artificial intelligence. While a higher proportion of positions in middle-skill fields face some level of disruption, an even bigger fraction of careers in high-skill areas exhibit significant vulnerability, as current duties stand a strong chance of being taken over by automation through AI.
“The conclusions of this report regarding the job market are alarming, yet they can serve as a guide for generating better employment opportunities. We have the power to create positive changes through enhancing social safety nets, fostering skill acquisition, encouraging open communication, and developing comprehensive labor sectors to guarantee that advancements in technology improve conditions for everyone. It’s crucial that we approach these goals urgently, ambitiously, and cooperatively,” Houngbo stated.
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