Rising Concerns Over Unpredictable Rainfall Patterns in Rural Communities
Across the country, rural communities are increasingly worried about the late and unpredictable rain patterns they are experiencing. These changes are already affecting farming activities during the current wet season. The 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has warned farmers and relevant stakeholders to be prepared for these challenges. According to the prediction, the start of the rainy season is expected to be delayed in several northern states, including Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara.
In comparison to the long-term average, the rainy season is predicted to end earlier in parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Ekiti, and Ondo states. A severe dry period lasting up to 21 days is forecasted in northern states during the June-July-August season. NiMet also noted that a significant dry spell (21 days or more) is likely to affect many local government areas in Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Katsina, Jigawa, Bauchi, Kebbi, Kano, Plateau, Zamfara, and Sokoto states. Additionally, the ‘Little Dry Season (LDS) event of 2025’ is expected to be severe over parts of Lagos and Ogun states, with the number of days with little or no rainfall ranging between 27 to 40 days.
The agency emphasized that these forecasts serve as an early warning tool for stakeholders, state governments, and the general public to prepare for potential hazards such as heavy rains, floods, high temperatures, and dry spells.
Farmers Express Growing Worry
Correspondents across various states report that farmers are becoming increasingly anxious due to the uncertain future of their investments. In Gombe State, the predictions by experts are gradually becoming a reality as the state continues to experience erratic and insufficient rainfall. Rain showers began in early May, prompting many farmers to clear their farmlands and plant crops like millet and maize. Although the crops initially sprouted, inconsistent rainfall has hindered their growth and progress.
Adamu Muhammad, a farmer, shared his experience, saying he planted early and his crops started growing well; however, prolonged dry spells have dampened his hopes for a good harvest. “It is now common to go 10 days or more without rain. This situation is worrying us because crops need consistent moisture to thrive,” Muhammad said. He added that while some of the crops still appeared healthy, a continued lack of rainfall could significantly reduce their yield.
Another farmer, Hajara Yunusa, said she anticipated the unpredictable rain pattern and decided to plant millet on three hectares of land, believing it is more tolerant to drought. “I observed from the beginning that the rains were not regular, that’s why I went for millet. But even now, the pattern is scary: it rains one day and we may go several days without another drop. Many farmers remain hesitant to apply fertiliser, fearing that without adequate rainfall, the chemicals could destroy their already struggling crops,” Hajara explained.
In Taraba State, farmers expressed fear over a repeat of last year’s experience. Areas experiencing irregular rainfall are mostly in the northern part of the state. Although farmers have already planted maize, rice, and other crops, the planting was done late due to late rainfall, which has not been regular.
Expert Advice and Government Response
An agricultural expert, Dr Teryima Iorlamen, has advised farmers to adhere strictly to best agronomy practices as they navigate an increasingly unpredictable agricultural landscape. Iorlamen, a seed systems principal investigator at the Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi (JOSTUM), warned farmers to adapt fast or risk a serious drop in yield following an impending drought due to climate change. He noted that in the face of changing weather patterns, the need for increased awareness and timely action could not be overemphasised.
Meanwhile, the leadership of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) is concerned that the impact of the weather phenomenon could negatively affect the country’s farming cycle. Ibrahim Kabiru, president of AFAN, highlighted the challenges farmers face, including limited access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization.
In response to the situation, the Commissioner for Agriculture in Plateau State, Bugama Samson, acknowledged the prediction of the drought and explained that the state has been advising farmers ahead of the situation. The Gombe State Government has also commenced the distribution and subsidized sale of fertilizer to support farmers during the challenging season.
These efforts highlight the urgency of addressing the challenges posed by unpredictable rainfall patterns and the need for proactive measures to ensure food security and sustainable farming practices.
