Finnish President’s Pessimism on Ukraine Ceasefire
Finnish President Alexander Stubb has expressed a sense of pessimism regarding the possibility of achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of summer. He notes that the momentum for a peace deal has slowed, and Vladimir Putin has shown no interest in even agreeing to a temporary truce. This outlook comes as Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia, joined the NATO alliance in 2023 due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Since then, Stubb has emerged as a significant voice supporting Kyiv and broader European security concerns.
Stubb emphasized the importance of ending the war, stating that the collateral damage is staggering. He questioned how long the international community can allow the conflict to continue if it becomes a stalemate or a war of attrition. His comments were made during an interview from the official presidential residence in Naantali, Finland, where he discussed various topics, including the evolving threat from Russia, Arctic security, and his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Golfing with Trump and Foreign Policy Approach
Stubb had a unique interaction with Trump when they played golf at Mar-a-Lago in Florida in March. Their discussion focused on security issues, including Ukraine. Stubb noted that such interactions are rare in Finnish history, highlighting the importance of maintaining good relations with the leader of a large country. His approach to foreign policy, particularly concerning Trump, involves dealing with the current reality rather than trying to change it. He described having a straightforward and good relationship with Trump while acknowledging there are no illusions about the situation.
Despite Trump’s previous promise to quickly end the war in Ukraine, a ceasefire remains distant. After meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Pope’s funeral in April, Stubb was initially optimistic about a potential ceasefire. However, he now feels differently, noting that there doesn’t seem to be any momentum. He believes the conflict will likely continue through the summer and into the fall.
Military Support and Sanctions
Given Russia’s refusal to agree to a truce, Stubb insists that military support for Ukraine must be increased, and sanctions against Russia should be strengthened. The European Union is hoping to approve its 18th package of sanctions against Russia by the end of the week. Additionally, Stubb would like to see Trump support a bipartisan bill proposed by a group of U.S. senators, which would impose a 500 per cent tariff on countries that buy Russian energy. If passed, this measure would significantly impact China and India.
Arctic Security and Icebreaker Initiatives
Finland is not only focusing on its defense along the Russian border but also on maritime security. Stubb believes that China and Russia will attempt to exert control over a larger portion of the Arctic, where a warming climate is making waters more navigable. This could lead to territorial conflicts and increased competition for shipping routes and resources. Given that Russia has numerous icebreakers, Stubb emphasizes the need for NATO to bolster its fleet.
Finland has built more than half of the world’s icebreakers. Last year, the country signed a deal with Canada and the U.S., allowing all three nations to share expertise and accelerate the construction of these ships. Construction is currently underway on the PolarMax icebreaker, which will be built in both Quebec and Finland, and is expected to be delivered to the Canadian Coast Guard by 2030.
Hockey Rivalries and Canada-U.S. Relations
Stubb is an avid hockey fan, and his father, Göran Stubb, was a top European NHL scout for decades. During the interview, he spoke about hockey rivalries and the shared connection between Finland and Canada. He mentioned that he spent summers in the U.S. and Canada and studied in the U.S., giving him a strong connection to North America.
When asked about advice for Canadians living next to a large neighbor, Stubb said that Canada-U.S. relations have always been “rock-solid.” He advised Canadians to continue working with the Americans as allies and friends, staying cool and collected. Regarding the recent elbows up movement, he found it acceptable but noted that he still thinks players fight too much in the rink. He suggested that if language seems rough, taking an ice bath and sauna could help.
