The Evolution of Modern Dating
It was the night before Valentine’s Day when my friend Sophie FaceTimed me on her walk home from yet another mediocre Hinge date. “I just didn’t feel that spark,” she said breathlessly. “I feel like I’m just waiting for [my person] to knock on the door and be like, ‘hey, I’m here. I’m your guy.’” Clearly, the chocolate hearts and bodega roses had gotten to her. “What is it that you’re looking for, exactly?” I asked, trying to identify the source of said missing spark. “That’s the problem,” she deduced. “I’ll know it’s my guy when I see him.” And in that moment, I had to wonder: When did dating become so preclusive?
Before the era of gym selfies and generic, monosyllabic Hinge prompts, there was an emphasis on really getting to know someone. The school of thought was “never judge a book by its cover”—and at the very least, you’d allow a potential suitor to buy you a drink before sending them to the island of misfit dates. Yet today, it seems, that the oversaturated, digital dating market has decimated our ability to hop on a good stock when we see one. The dating app boom has led to a collective, “grass is always greener” mentality—giving us access to every fish in the sea—while cultivating an impending sense of doom that we’ll never find “the one.” (Or worse; we’ll eventually be forced to settle). But in a time where the dump-to-date ratio is higher than ever, it’s worth asking: How much does “settling” have to do with “settling down”?
Thanks to Sex and The City’s resident lawyer, Miranda Hobbs, there’s a hypothesis that aims to answer that exact question: The Taxi Cab Theory. And wouldn’t you know—recent research suggests she may have been onto something.
What Is the Taxi Cab Theory?
Essentially, it’s the idea that love has nothing to do with commitment; it’s all about timing (or reaching a point where you’re too exhausted to go on another bad first date). But before I get into the nitty-gritty, let’s start with the SATC episode where the theory originated. First, we have Charlotte—a hopeless romantic who clings to the idea of “true love” like a puppy with its chew toy. Two weeks after meeting Trey, her soon-to-be groom, she gushes: “Sometimes you just know, it’s like, magic, it’s fate.” And this is when Miranda sardonically introduces the Taxi Cab Theory: “It’s not fate, his light is on—that’s all,” she says. “Men are like cabs; when they’re available, their light goes on. They wake up one day and decide they’re ready to settle down, have babies, (whatever), and they turn their light on. The next woman they pick up, boom! That’s the one they’ll marry. It’s not fate, it’s dumb luck.”
In the simplest terms, the theory stems from the idea that commitment has nothing to do with compatibility (read: Soonicorn). It’s not that finding the perfect partner is impossible, per se, but it values timing over everything. Reaching a point where you choose to settle down with someone who’s generally pleasant to be around, or at the very least, someone who won’t make you cringe when they laugh or slurp soup.
But here’s where it gets interesting: In a 2022 study published in Social Psychological and Personality Science, researchers followed 316 undergrad students over nine months, tracking how and why they chose to stay committed in a relationship. And what they found echoed Miranda’s theory almost to a T.
What Experts Think About the Taxi Cab Theory
Miranda’s metaphor says essentially that there’s no such thing as fate, only timing. And according to the researchers behind this study, that light isn’t sparked by a perfect match—it’s triggered when someone crosses what they call a “psychological threshold.” The authors found that people didn’t commit because they found their ideal person. They committed when the idea of continuing the search started to feel more draining than nurturing what they already had. In fact, they argue, this threshold is an internal shift: the moment when “the perceived benefits of the relationship outweigh the appeal of alternatives.” Sometimes that benefit was emotional closeness. Other times? It was not wanting to redownload Hinge again.
One participant summed it up plainly: “We’d been together for a while, and I realized I didn’t feel like leaving anymore.” And here’s where Taxi Cab Theory gets empirical backup: once people crossed that threshold, their commitment didn’t rise gradually—it “increased sharply and consistently,” often “within a short window of time.” In other words, it wasn’t a slow burn; it was a flick of the switch. Light on.
Which means Miranda wasn’t far off: the light doesn’t turn on for the most compatible partner. It turns on when someone is ready to commit. And for those who never crossed the threshold? It wasn’t because their partner lacked some magnetic quality. It was because they never hit that internal turning point—because the timing wasn’t right.
How Can You Tell If Someone’s Light Is On?
If you’ve ever found yourself dissecting a situationship over overpriced cocktails—asking, Is he serious about me or just bored?—Taxi Cab Theory might offer some clarity. Because, again, we know the light doesn’t flicker on slowly. And once it flips, the behavior tends to follow. Fast. According to the study, people didn’t always articulate that they were ready to commit, but you could see the shift in their actions: they prioritized their partner’s needs, showed up more reliably and started planning for the future in concrete, everyday ways.
More to the point: If you’re waiting for a verbal confirmation that he’s “ready,” you might be looking in the wrong place. His light doesn’t come with a speech—it shows up in his behavior.
The Bottom Line
It’s easy to spiral down a TikTok rabbit hole, overanalyzing mixed signals and trying to decode whether someone’s “light” is on. But if this research made one thing clear, it’s that no amount of chemistry or compatibility will flip the switch. It all boils down to right place, right time.
So perhaps the better question isn’t “Is he ready to commit?” but “What exactly am I waiting for?” Because in a culture obsessed with finding the ideal match—often one that may not even exist—‘settling’ has become synonymous with ‘giving up.’ Yet, could it be that it’s not about giving up on connection, but redefining our expectations of commitment?
The hard truth Miranda stumbled upon is that most people don’t “find the one” so much as they decide to stop looking. Not when they meet someone perfect—but when chasing someone “better” starts to feel senseless compared to who’s in front of them. And in that light, settling down isn’t about settling for less. It’s about knowing when to stop searching—and choosing someone who’s ready to do the same.
Meet The Experts
Dr. Christopher R. Agnew, Dr. Agnew is a social psychologist whose research centers on close relationships, commitment processes, and the social dynamics that influence romantic decision-making. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and has authored extensively on how relationships form, endure and dissolve. A Fellow of multiple psychological associations and past President of the International Association for Relationship Research, he brings decades of expertise to the study of timing and commitment in modern relationships.
Dr. Benjamin Hadden, Senior Quantitative UX Researcher at Meta. Dr. Hadden holds a Ph.D. in Social Psychology from the University of Houston, where his research centered on motivation, attachment and commitment in close relationships. Before transitioning to Meta, he led academic studies on relationship readiness and decision-making at institutions like Purdue University and Florida Atlantic. His work blends rigorous quantitative analysis with an interest in what drives people to stay, invest or opt out of love entirely.
Ashlyn Brady, M.A., Assistant Professor of Psychology at Sweet Briar College. Dr. Brady holds a Ph.D. in Social Psychology and an M.A. in Experimental Psychology from UNC Greensboro, with research focused on sexual satisfaction, commitment processes, and self-regulation in romantic relationships. Her work examines how partners navigate intimacy and decision-making in long-term dynamics, and has been supported by grants from The Love Consortium and the John Templeton Foundation. She currently teaches courses on close relationships, social psychology, and experimental design.
Levi R. Baker, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Psychology at UNC Greensboro. Dr. Baker holds a Ph.D. in Social Psychology from Florida State University and leads research on romantic relationships, decision-making, and interpersonal problem-solving. His work examines how cognitive processes—like memory, emotion regulation, and perceived commitment—shape relationship dynamics. A recipient of the APS Rising Star award, he’s published extensively on topics ranging from infidelity risk to conflict resolution and serves on the editorial boards of top journals in the field.
