Morocco’s Water Crisis: A Looming Challenge
Morocco is facing a severe water scarcity crisis that is expected to escalate dramatically by 2050. According to recent studies, per capita water availability in the country is projected to drop to just 500 cubic meters annually, a significant decrease from 645 m³ in 2015. This level is far below the 10,000 m³ threshold seen in countries with abundant water resources, placing Morocco well below the global water stress threshold.
The report highlights that this situation is not only a result of natural climatic variations but also a consequence of intensifying climate change impacts. The Mediterranean region, including Morocco, is experiencing a rapid shift towards aridity, which is expected to worsen throughout the 21st century. Droughts, once a recurring feature of Morocco’s semi-arid climate, have become more frequent, longer in duration, and more intense since the early 1900s.
By early 2024, Morocco had endured six consecutive years of drought, with average dam levels dropping to 25%. Some key regions, such as Oriental, saw even lower levels. Additionally, rainfall between September 2023 and February 2024 fell by 70%, while temperature spikes broke historical records. 2023 became the hottest year ever recorded in the country, with temperatures 1.49°C above the average baseline for 1991–2020.
The implications of these changes are profound. The report forecasts that temperatures in the Mediterranean basin will rise by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius by mid-century, potentially reaching 3 to 5 degrees by 2100. This warming is likely to be accompanied by a dramatic reduction in precipitation, particularly in Morocco’s High Atlas region, where rainfall may decline by as much as 65% by the end of the century. As a result, the spread of desert conditions into southern and central Morocco is becoming increasingly probable, with devastating implications for ecosystems, agriculture, and human settlements.
To address the crisis, Moroccan authorities have implemented emergency measures, including strict water use restrictions, greater reliance on desalination, and the deployment of mobile desalination units along the coast. While these actions provide short-term relief, they come at a high financial and environmental cost, especially given Morocco’s dependence on imported fossil fuels to power its desalination infrastructure. The government has also expanded its cloud seeding program, allocating close to €15 million between 2021 and 2023 in an effort to artificially stimulate rainfall.
The prolonged drought has severely impacted the agricultural sector, which remains a cornerstone of both employment and food security. Crop yields have plummeted, particularly for water-intensive staples like wheat and barley. Livestock farming has also suffered, driving up meat prices and exacerbating inflationary pressures. In response, the government has taken steps such as cutting import duties on livestock ahead of Eid al-Adha, increasing food subsidies, and providing emergency financial support to farmers in drought-stricken regions.
Beyond the immediate economic and environmental toll, the study draws attention to broader geopolitical and social risks associated with prolonged water scarcity in the Mediterranean. Morocco, along with countries like Turkey and Spain, was chosen as a focal point of the report due to its high media visibility and its role as a bellwether for the region’s climate trajectory. The authors emphasize that the convergence of desertification, declining water resources, and rising temperatures could trigger climate-induced migration, strain regional cooperation, and disrupt economic development if left unaddressed.
In conclusion, the report underscores that Morocco’s water crisis is no longer a future possibility but a current reality. As climate conditions continue to deteriorate, the country faces the daunting challenge of adapting its water management systems, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and securing sustainable development for its population. The authors urge enhanced regional cooperation, deeper investment in scientific research and technological innovation, and stronger alignment between climate policy and socio-economic planning to mitigate what could otherwise become a defining crisis of the 21st century for North Africa.
