Russia’s Plan to Expand Military Presence in Armenia
Recent developments suggest that Russia is planning to increase its military presence in Armenia by reinforcing the Russian military base in Gyumri. This information was shared through a document released by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU). The document reportedly includes a telegram from the acting Chief of Staff of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, Major General Zemskov.
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The DIU stated that the document contains an order issued by the commander of the troops in the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. The order outlines plans to strengthen the grouping of Russian forces by “manning” the Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia. This move indicates a strategic effort by Russia to solidify its military influence in the region.
The telegram details a series of steps aimed at increasing the number of personnel stationed at the base. It specifies that personnel will be selected from the 8th, 18th, 49th, and 58th Combined Arms Armies of the Southern Military District. These units are part of the larger Russian military structure and are responsible for various operational tasks.
The document also includes instructions for selecting suitable candidates for deployment. According to the letter, from May 13 to June 11, 2025, commanders were tasked with identifying personnel from within their formations and military units. The selected individuals would then sign their first contracts and be sent to the military base for further service.
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In addition to this, the telegram emphasized the need for commanders to streamline the selection process. It outlined specific criteria for evaluating potential candidates, including their professional aptitude, psychological stability, and level of combat training. These requirements highlight the importance of maintaining a high standard of readiness among the deployed forces.
Tensions Between Russia and Armenia
The relationship between Russia and Armenia has been marked by growing tensions in recent years. This deterioration began following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. During this conflict, Armenia criticized the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for its lack of action when Azerbaijan launched an operation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
In September 2023, Armenia expressed dissatisfaction with the CSTO’s response to the situation, leading to increased pressure on the organization. In June 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that his country would withdraw from the CSTO, signaling a shift in its foreign policy approach.
This decision came as part of broader efforts by Armenia to diversify its international partnerships. In April 2024, the country officially began its journey toward joining the European Union (EU). This move reflects a desire to strengthen ties with Western institutions and reduce dependence on Russia.
The planned expansion of the Russian military base in Gyumri could have significant implications for regional security. It may affect the balance of power in the South Caucasus and influence the dynamics between Armenia, Russia, and other neighboring countries.
As these developments unfold, it remains to be seen how they will impact the political and military landscape in the region. The actions of both Russia and Armenia will likely continue to shape the future of their bilateral relations and the broader geopolitical context in the South Caucasus.
